Is it a bear or bull market 2024?
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
It's the 50th trading day of 2024, and the S&P 500 is up 8.3% so far. That would be its best 50-day start to a year since 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The market benchmark has marked 17 record closes so far this year.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
Stocks and bonds deliver positive returns and cash underperforms both as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years.
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
| Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
| Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 255.3% |
The bank's analysts give a positive forecast for the Dow Jones exchange rate in 2024. In their opinion, index quotes will increase by 10% to $40,000 in 2024. If the US economy avoids recession, growth could reach up to 19%. This scenario is more likely due to cooling inflation and stable GDP growth.
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
Will stocks rise in 2024?
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
The S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months, partly fueled by the view the Fed could soon start cutting rates. The index has hit record highs this year, and is up about 4% so far for 2024 after rising 24% in 2023.
The large-cap benchmark S&P 500 index SPX on Thursday notched its 20th all-time closing high in 2024, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP ended at its fourth all-time high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA scored its 16th record close so far this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
Bear markets occur when prices in a market decline by more than 20%, often accompanied by negative investor sentiment and a weakening economy. Bear markets can be cyclical or longer-term. The former lasts for several weeks or a couple of months and the latter can last for several years or even decades.
“This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”
Our forecasts call for the U.S. economy to grow 1.6% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025. But if the U.S. labor market merely remains as resilient as it has been since late 2020, U.S. growth could be half a percentage point stronger in 2023 and 0.7 point stronger in 2025. The result would be much stronger global growth as well.
- SoundHound AI and Sweetgreen are up 174% and 116% so far in 2024.
- SoundHouse AI is seeing its platform for conversational intelligence explode in popularity.
- Sweetgreen has quadrupled over the past year, but it's still a broken IPO with potential to harvest.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Mutual funds.
- Index Funds.
- Exchange-traded funds.
- Stocks.
- CPG.
- AVGO.
- GAMB.
What stocks to buy in 2024?
| Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
|---|---|
| Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
| Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
| Salesforce Inc. (CRM) | 7.2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) | 11.3% |
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
| Period | Average annualised return | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| Last 5 years | 12.0% | 76.6% |
| Last 10 years | 14.4% | 282.9% |
| Last 20 years | 10.1% | 586.8% |
To reach 50,000, the Dow wouldn't even need to double — it would require a 31.6% gain from the 38,000 level. If the DJIA companies only earned the current 1.77% dividend yield, it would take 15.6 years for the index to reach the 50,000 mark.
They point to the fact that the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years and that interest rates are likely to rise. As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 5-7% per year over the next five years.
