How long does a bear market usually last?
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
Bear markets tend to be short-lived.
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. Every 3.5 years: That's the long-term average frequency between bear markets.
A bear market has lasted an average of 14 months. A bull market has had an average lifespan of about 60 months. A bear market has had an average decline of around –33%. A bull market has historically had an average rise of 165%.
The shortest bear market lasted just 33 days, in the spring of 2020. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 21 bear markets (not including the current downturn). That's approximately one every 4.5 years, on average. The average length of a bear market is 388 days.
The reverse of a bear market is a bull market, characterized by gains of 20% or more. While 20% is the threshold, bear markets often plummet much deeper than that over a sustained period.
Starting with the “tech wreck” in 2000, inflation totaled 35.7%, prolonging the real recovery in purchasing power an additional seven years and nine months. The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
Historically, the index has taken an average of 19 months to recover from bear market declines of 20% or more, as shown in the accompanying table.
According to Seeking Alpha — which analyzed every bear market since 1928 — the longest-ever bear market occurred in 1973-74, when it lasted 630 days, or about 21 months. The stock market shed about 48% during that period.
Here are some key stats from Dow Jones Market Data: - $S&P 500 Index(. SPX.US)$ had been in bear-market territory for 248 trading days; the longest bear market since the 484 trading days ending on May 15, 1948. - Excluding this most recent bear market, the average bear market lasts 142 trading days.
Here are two key technical indicators used to recognize bear markets: Moving Averages: Moving averages are widely used in technical analysis to smoothen price data and identify trends. The 200-day moving average is a common indicator used to determine the long-term trend of a stock or market index.
How long did the 1973 bear market last?
| Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
|---|---|---|
| January 1973 to October 1974 | 21 months | -48% |
| November 1980 to August 1982 | 21 months | -27% |
| August 1987 to December 1987 | 4 months | -34% |
| July 1990 to October 1990 | 3 months | -20% |
dot-com crash in March 2000 is technically the longest (a drop of 19.9% in 1990 nearly derailed that bull, but just missed the bear threshold). markets, or one about every 1.5 years. Since 1945, there have been 15—one about every 5.1 years.
One year and three months. The total length of time that the bear market of 2007 to 2009 lasted. The S&P 500 lost 51.9% of its value. 29 While this event can't be considered a true stock market crash, it's still worth noting based on the steep losses.
And, importantly, bear markets often turn into bull markets quickly, with sizable gains occurring early in the recovery. In the last five bear market recoveries, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 25% in the first three months of the new bull market.
Some markets, such as bonds, defensive stocks and certain commodities like gold often perform well in bearish downturns. If you have the risk appetite for it, bear markets may also be an opportunity to short-sell if trading, making a profit if you predict correctly when prices will fall (and make a loss if you don't)
Another option is to reduce your spending as much as you can during a bear market. This will allow you to withdraw less money from your portfolio when prices are down. Cutting spending isn't easy, but it may help you sleep better and get you through a period of high volatility.
As shown in the table below, the recovery period for U.S. stocks has been as long as 15 years: In the wake of the 1929 Crash, the IA SBBI US Large Stock Index didn't fully recover until late 1944. For gold bugs, the longest recovery period spanned more than 26 years (from October 1980 until April 2007).
It typically takes five months to reach the “bottom” of a correction. However, once the market starts to turn, it can recover quickly. The average recovery time for a correction is just four months! That's why investors with truly diversified portfolios may consider staying investing for the long-term.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
On Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged almost 22%. Black Monday, as the day is now known, marks the biggest single-day decline in stock market history.
How far down do bear markets go?
A bear market is a financial market experiencing prolonged price declines, generally of 20% or more. A bear market usually occurs along with widespread investor pessimism, large-scale liquidation of securities and other assets, and a weakening economy.
- Learn from your mistakes. Traders need to be able to recognize their strengths and weaknesses—and plan around them. ...
- Keep a trade log. ...
- Write it off. ...
- Slowly start to rebuild. ...
- Scale up and scale down. ...
- Use limit and stop orders.
Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928
There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days.
Invest in stocks that you want to own for the long run, and don't sell them simply because their prices went down in a bear market. Focus on quality: When bear markets hit, it's true that companies often go out of business.
A bear market of at least a 20% decline will occur again at some point, but it's important to keep it in perspective. The average bear market has lasted only about 15 months, according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research, and 80% of corrections since 1974 have not led to a bear market.
