Will auto loan rates go down in 2024?
The lowest auto loan rate in 2023 was 6.15 percent for a four-year used car loan in mid-January. Bankrate's expert predicts five-year new car loan rates will reach an average of 7.0 percent and four-year used car loans, 7.5 percent by the end of 2024.
Lower Auto Loan Rates Could Make 2024 a Good Time To Buy or Refinance. While market predictions are bullish on the funds rate — and by extension, auto loan rates — finally coming back down in 2024, it's still not a guarantee. Powell and others at the Fed remain committed to their target of 2% inflation.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid- to low-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Experts say that 2024 will be the best year to purchase a new car since 2019. As interest rates slowly drop throughout the remainder of the year, payments will become more manageable. Don't overlook manufacturer rate promotions, as they can save you thousands of dollars.
Prediction: Auto loan rates edge down to 7%
McBride expects five-year new car loans to drop to 7% by the end of the year.
In February 2023, car shoppers could explore auto loan options with rates hovering around a more manageable terrain. Fast forward to February 2024, and the scenario has shifted. According to the J.D. Power's U.S. Automotive Forecast, we're now looking at an average new car interest rate of 6.9%.
Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 6.1% and 6.4% in 2024. Instead of waiting for rates to drop, homebuyers should consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition next year.
The bottom line
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
The expected decreasing inflationary pressure, plus the added impact of a falling federal funds rate in 2024, is likely to push mortgage rates lower. But while the Fed raised its benchmark rate fast in 2022–2023, it's expected to bring rates down at a much more gradual pace in 2024 and beyond.
One reason is that as the Federal Reserve presumably begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.
Why is 2024 the year to buy a car?
Though inventories of new autos are still well below the roughly 4 million level that prevailed before the pandemic, analysts and dealers say the rising availability suggests that 2024 will be the most affordable year of the past five in which to buy a new car or truck.
- 'I love this car! ' ...
- 'I've got to have a monthly payment of $350. ' ...
- 'My lease is up next week. ' ...
- 'I want $10,000 for my trade-in, and I won't take a penny less. ' ...
- 'I've been looking all over for this color. '
In terms of the best time of the year, October, November and December are safe bets. Car dealerships have sales quotas, which typically break down into yearly, quarterly and monthly sales goals. All three goals begin to come together late in the year.
An interest rate under 5% is a great rate for a 72-month auto loan. However, the best loan offers are only available to borrowers who have the best credit scores and payment histories.
| Credit score | Average APR, new car | Average APR, used car |
|---|---|---|
| Superprime: 781-850. | 5.64%. | 7.66%. |
| Prime: 661-780. | 7.01%. | 9.73%. |
| Nonprime: 601-660. | 9.60%. | 14.12%. |
| Subprime: 501-600. | 12.28%. | 18.89%. |
| Personal FICO score | Average interest rate for new car loans | Average interest rate for used car loans |
|---|---|---|
| 781 to 850 | 5.64% | 7.66% |
| 661 to 780 | 7.01% | 9.73% |
| 601 to 660 | 9.60% | 14.12% |
| 501 to 600 | 12.28% | 18.89% |
| Top Auto Loan Lender | Lowest APR | Term Length |
|---|---|---|
| AutoPay | 4.67%** | 24 to 96 months |
| PenFed Credit Union | 5.24% | 36 to 84 months |
| Auto Approve | 5.24%** | 12 to 84 months |
| Consumers Credit Union | 6.54% | Up to 84 months |
Rates likely won't decrease this year
To put it simply, rates aren't expected to decrease this year. This is primarily due to the continued work from the Federal Reserve to quell inflation. But higher interest rates aren't the only thing making car loans more expensive this year.
The Federal Reserve doesn't directly set auto loan rates — but it does affect the cost for lenders to borrow money. When the Fed increases rates, as they have 11 times since March 2022, it usually means lenders are quick to follow. High interest rates have offset any concrete wins from stabilizing vehicle prices.
Mortgage rates are going to stay above 6% through 2025, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Goldman said the decline in mortgage rates should offer marginal improvements in housing affordability. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.62% last week after hitting a cycle-high of 7.8%.
What could interest rates be in 2025?
The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Right now, the Fed interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC established that rate in late July 2023. At its most recent meeting in March, the committee decided to leave the rate unchanged. March 19-20, 2024.
Doing so lowers the overall amount of interest they pay over the mortgage term. This practice is sometimes called “buying down the interest rate.” Each point the borrower buys costs 1 percent of the mortgage amount. One point on a $300,000 mortgage would cost $3,000.
The nation's top economists say the Fed is most likely to keep interest rates higher than 2.5 percent — often considered the “goldilocks,” not-too-tight, not-too-loose level for its benchmark federal funds rate — until the end of 2026, Bankrate's quarterly economists' poll found.
