Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (7)

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Monthly update of The Conference Board's forecast for the US economy

The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

May 16, 2024

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Thereafter, inflation should gradually normalize to the Fed’s 2-percent target in 2025 as quarterly annualized GDP growth rises toward its potential of near 2%.Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may stabilize at levels exceeding the pre-pandemic average.

US consumer spending held up remarkably well in 2023 despite numerous headwinds. However, this trend has begun to wane. Realretails salesgrowth is in retreat andconsumer confidence has fallen for several months. Gains in real disposable personal income growth are softening, pandemic savings have been exhausted, and household debt is increasing rapidly. Consumers are spending more of their income to service debt and auto loan and credit card delinquencies are rising quickly. Thus, we forecast that overall consumer spending growth will continue to slow in Q2 and Q3 2024 as households struggle to find a new equilibrium between income, debt, savings, and spending. While we anticipate labor market conditions t

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (8)

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Economic Forecast for the US Economy (2024)

FAQs

Economic Forecast for the US Economy? ›

The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.

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What is the forecast for the US economy in 2024? ›

Amid healthy consumer fundamentals, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2024 by 30 basis points (bp) to 2.5%, and for 2025 by 20 bp to 2.1%. CPI inflation remains stubborn, prompting a 40 bp upward revision to 3.1% to our headline CPI forecast for 2024, and a 20 bp gain to 2.5% for 2025.

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What is the future of the United States economy? ›

US economy sees slowest quarter in two years

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently increased its 2024 forecast for US GDP growth to 2.7% from 2.1% in its January outlook. The Q1 growth figure accompanies a cooling of US business activity in April, while inflation rates slowed slightly.

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What is the outlook for the US economy? ›

EIU expects US GDP growth to grow by 2.2% this year and by 1.8% in 2025. “EIU's core forecast is that the Fed will cut rates in September and then again in December this year but risks remain.

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What is the economic growth forecast for the US? ›

Latest estimate: 3.6 percent -- May 16, 2024

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.6 percent on May 16, down from 3.8 percent on May 15.

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Will the economy get better in 2025? ›

The global economy is continuing growing at a modest pace, according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook. The Economic Outlook projects steady global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025.

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What are the odds of a recession 2024? ›

After global growth exceeded expectations in 2023, businesses' perceived probability of a global recession has fallen substantially in 2024, according to Oxford Economics data. Oxford's global risk survey in January showed a recession probability of 7.2% — less than half of what it was in October 2023.

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How will the US economy be in 5 years? ›

While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over Q2 and Q3 2024. Thereafter, inflation and interest rates should gradually normalize and quarterly annualized GDP growth should converge toward its potential of near 2% in 2025.

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Will the US economy ever get better? ›

Overall, despite an expected slowdown in the coming quarters, we expect the US economy to post real growth of 2.4% this year and 1.4% in 2025. Over the entire forecast, economic growth averages 1.8% per year, slightly higher than the long-term potential of 1.5% per year.

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Is the US economy growing or declining? ›

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

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What country has the best economy? ›

The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.

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What is the stock market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

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How well is the US economy doing right now? ›

The economy is expanding at a crisp pace, unemployment is low, inflation is slowing from its peak. The Federal Reserve looks at several economic indicators — along with the stock market — to form a better picture of the economy and make decisions on interest rates.

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What is the prediction of the US economy in 2024? ›

S&P Global Ratings expects U.S. real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 as the labor market remains sturdy. We continue to expect the economy to transition to slightly below-potential growth in the next couple of years.

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Is business slow right now in 2024? ›

In our latest Economic Outlook, we detail that we expect real gross domestic product growth to slow in 2024 versus the solid 2.5% growth posted in 2023. We expect GDP growth in year-over-year terms to dip to around 1.5% by the end of 2024.

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Is the US economy in a recession? ›

US GDP has been rising over the last few years, barring a brief contraction in 2022, which the NEBR did not deem a recession. Republicans and independents are more likely to believe the US is currently experiencing a recession. The last recession was in 2020, during the global pandemic.

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Will prices go down in 2024? ›

Summary: The CPI and PCE increased 3.5% and 2.7%, respectively, year on year in March 2024. The PCE Index is projected to fall to 2.1% by fourth-quarter 2024, averaging 2.3% for the year. Supply chain improvements and falling housing prices have yet to be fully reflected in inflation numbers.

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Will the job market get better in 2024? ›

Employment growth will remain positive in 2024, but at a much slower pace than in recent years. “2024 will look a lot like the second half of 2023 when it comes to hiring and job gains,” Vachon said.

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