What is the stock market outlook for 2024?
Wall Street analysts ultimately expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by roughly 11% in 2024. And by the fourth quarter, growth is expected to have roughly evened out, with the top 10 stocks expected to see growth of 17.2% while the other 490 companies see growth of 17.8%, according to FactSet data.
The US stock market enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2024, advancing 10%. But inflation was stickier than some expected. In fact, the March CPI number that came out this morning was hotter than expected, too. And that's leading many to question when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
Meanwhile, the median streak of positive returns can extend to 17 months with a gain of 14%, based on historical data. That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025.
The bank's analysts give a positive forecast for the Dow Jones exchange rate in 2024. In their opinion, index quotes will increase by 10% to $40,000 in 2024. If the US economy avoids recession, growth could reach up to 19%. This scenario is more likely due to cooling inflation and stable GDP growth.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Mutual funds.
- Index Funds.
- Exchange-traded funds.
- Stocks.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
Traders work on the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange on March 6, 2024. Despite the heavy concentration of the U.S. market rally in expensive, AI-focused tech stocks, analysts say Wall Street is not yet in bubble territory.
BlackRock. Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).
The shift up in portfolio returns reflects a 7.4% expected annualized return for U.S. stocks in the next 10 years, up from the 6.5% assumption made last year.
Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Stock prices have surged significantly over the past 18 months. The S&P 500 is up by 45% since it bottomed out in October 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared by a whopping 58% in that time. Investing now, then, means paying much higher prices than you would if you'd bought a year or two ago.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
- High-Yield Cash Account. Considered one of the safest investments, a high-yield cash account can potentially keep your money safe. ...
- Tax-Advantaged Investment Account. ...
- Taxable Investment Account. ...
- Real Estate. ...
- I-Bonds. ...
- Precious Metals. ...
- Alternative Assets.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
1. High-yield savings accounts. Overview: A high-yield savings account at a bank or credit union is a good alternative to holding cash in a checking account, which typically pays very little interest on your deposit. The bank will pay interest in a savings account on a regular basis.
Key Takeaways:
The 100-minus-your-age long-term savings rule is designed to guard against investment risk in retirement. If you're 60, you should only have 40% of your retirement portfolio in stocks, with the rest in bonds, money market accounts and cash.
No one, including the company that issued the stock, pockets the money from your declining stock price. The money reflected by changes in stock prices isn't tallied and given to some investor. The changes in price are simply an independent by-product of supply and demand and corresponding investor transactions.
- Protecting Your 401(k) From a Stock Market Crash.
- Don't Panic and Withdraw Your Money Too Early.
- Diversify Your Portfolio.
- Rebalance Your Portfolio.
- Keep Some Cash on Hand.
- Continue Contributing to Your 401(k) and Other Retirement Accounts.
- How to Respond to a Recession.
| Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
|---|---|
| Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
| Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
| Salesforce Inc. (CRM) | 7.2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) | 11.3% |
What will happen to the S&P 500 in 2024?
Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed. But valuations have risen along with stock prices.
BNY Mellon's Stock Market Predictions
BNY Mellon believes that U.S. equities will average annual returns of 7.4% across the next 10 years, a nearly full percentage point higher than its 6.5% previous forecast. Meanwhile, aggregate bonds are expected to yield 4.8% annualized returns, up from 4.1%.
Usually, when the stock market crashes, this can halt economic growth throughout the region. This means that the government may choose to reduce spending, companies may not have access to funding for expansion or operations, and investors may run into many losses on their open positions.
There is also ample earnings growth in the pipeline: Wall Street analysts are forecasting 11% earnings growth this year for S&P 500 companies, after gains of just 2% in 2023. Next year, the consensus call is for a gain of 13%, hardly the stuff of which bear markets are made.
A stock market fall can occur as a result of a large disastrous event, an economic crisis, or the bursting of a long-term speculative bubble. Reactionary public fear in response to a stock market fall can also be a key cause, prompting panic selling that further depresses prices.
