How long does a bull market usually last?
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
“This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”
Historically speaking, the average length of a bull market is 9.6 months. The average gain for a bull market is 112%. Keep in mind these are the average and they have been extending with each bull market.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
The market sees a greater than 80% chance of at least five rate cuts from current levels by the end of 2024. Investor optimism about the economic outlook has improved dramatically from a year ago, but there's still a risk that Fed policy tightening could tip the economy into a recession in 2024.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research. As noted above, the longest bull market in history ran for 11 years, from 2009 to 2020.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
Will market bounce back in 2024?
Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher. While some valuations are stretched, there is still room for the market to grow if earnings estimates are met.
2024 is also an election year, historically the second-best year in the four-year political cycle (behind year three). We believe the historical signal of a strong start, combined with what is likely to be peak interest rates and positive earnings guidance, bode well for equities.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Key Takeaways. The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
The bounce-back from the 2008 crash took five and a half years, but an additional half year to regain your purchasing power.
On Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged almost 22%. Black Monday, as the day is now known, marks the biggest single-day decline in stock market history.
S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end-2025, says Capital Economics.
Diversify. When dividend reinvestment is included, S&P increased by 26.44% in 2024, adding more than 2% to the market return for the year. No matter how optimistic you may be going forward, another decline in 2023 can't be ruled out. Dividends are one of the best protections against volatility in the stock market.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
| Year | Open, $ | Close, $ |
|---|---|---|
| December 2024 | 45370 | 46983 |
| December 2027 | 58509 | 56472 |
| January 2028 | 56472 | 59561 |
| April 2028 | 56165 | 53195 |
What stock will boom in 2024?
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
| Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
| Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
They point to the fact that the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years and that interest rates are likely to rise. As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 5-7% per year over the next five years.
A bull market ends when stocks fall 20 percent below their last high — a period known as a bear market. The last time the S&P 500 entered a bear market was in 2022, as investors recoiled in the face of stubborn inflation and rising interest rates.
Investors are celebrating new all-time highs for the S&P 500. The index is a popular stand-in for the broader stock market, making its new record a signal that Wall Street is officially in a new bull market.
However, as a singular event, the stock market crash itself did not cause the Great Depression that followed. In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.
