How do you predict a bull market?
Bull markets are characterized by rising prices, ongoing positive sentiment and a positive economic backdrop. A common metric used to define a Bull market is when the price of an asset has moved 20% higher from its recent, significant low.
Rather, market trackers at S&P Dow Jones Indices define a bull market as a 20% rise in the S&P 500 from its previous low. By that measure — a 20% gain off the low —the current bull market began on January 19, 2024. Note that by that measure, a bull market comes to an end when the S&P 500 falls 20% from its peak.
New Highs are Exceeding New Lows
New highs exceeding new lows are crucial for a sustained bull market because they reflect positive market breadth and broad-based strength. When the number of stocks reaching new highs outpaces those hitting new lows, it indicates widespread optimism and confidence among investors.
- Moving Averages and Crossovers. Moving Averages. ...
- Bollinger Bands. Bollinger bands are a widely used tool in technical analysis. ...
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ...
- RSI Weakness: ...
- Cup-And-Handle Pattern.
As mentioned above, a bullish trend can be identified if a price is making higher highs and higher lows. Lower highs and lower lows determine a bearish trend. This is also known as trend identification based on price action.
For starters, they generally happen during periods when the economy is strong or strengthening. Bull markets are often accompanied by gross domestic product (GDP) growth and falling unemployment, and companies' profits will be on the rise.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Historically speaking, the average length of a bull market is 9.6 months. The average gain for a bull market is 112%. Keep in mind these are the average and they have been extending with each bull market.
Bull Power measures the strength of buyers in the market by evaluating the divergence between the day's high and an exponential moving average. In contrast, Bear Power assesses the dominance of sellers by examining the difference between the day's low and the same moving average.
S&P 500 Index
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
What is the best predictor of the stock market?
AltIndex – We found that AltIndex is the most accurate stock predictor for 2024. Unlike other providers in this space, AltIndex relies on alternative data points, such as social media sentiment and website analytics. It also uses artificial intelligence to convert its findings into risk-averse stock picks.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ...
- Stochastic Oscillator. ...
- Bollinger Bands. ...
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) ...
- Fibonacci Retracement. ...
- Standard Deviation. ...
- Ichimoku Cloud. ...
- Client Sentiment. IG client sentiment provides insights into the positioning of traders in a specific market.
Day traders typically use a combination of strategies and analysis, including technical analysis, which focuses on past price movements and trading patterns, and momentum, which involves capitalizing on short-term trends and reversals.
Some of the common indicators that predict stock prices include Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). These indicators help traders and investors gauge trends, momentum, and potential reversal points in stock prices.
A popular method for modeling and predicting the stock market is technical analysis, which is a method based on historical data from the market, primarily price and volume.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
You should always stay on the same side of momentum. So, you can buy high and wait for the stock to go higher; or you can use dips to buy. Either ways, you should never try to outguess the market. In a bull market, the very idea of selling against momentum can land you in big losses.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher. While some valuations are stretched, there is still room for the market to grow if earnings estimates are met.
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
Are we in a bull run?
Yes, in 2024 we are in a bull market. The low point of October 2022 marked the beginning of the bull market run and is expected to last at least a few years.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
A bull market ends when stocks fall 20 percent below their last high — a period known as a bear market. The last time the S&P 500 entered a bear market was in 2022, as investors recoiled in the face of stubborn inflation and rising interest rates.
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months. However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
Bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets, in part because stock prices tend to trend upward over time. In other words, bull markets historically have lasted a median of twice as long as bear markets—and have seen prices rise more than double what they have tended to fall in bear markets.
