Do I really need bonds in my portfolio?
Traditionally, the answer has been that bonds provide diversification and income. They zig when stocks zag, providing income for spending needs. In finance terms, bonds have “low correlation” levels to stocks, and adding them to a portfolio would help to reduce the overall portfolio risk.
The 90/10 rule in investing is a comment made by Warren Buffett regarding asset allocation. The rule stipulates investing 90% of one's investment capital toward low-cost stock-based index funds and the remainder 10% to short-term government bonds.
We suggest investors consider high-quality, intermediate- or long-term bond investments rather than sitting in cash or other short-term bond investments. With the Fed likely to cut rates soon, we don't want investors caught off guard when the yields on short-term investments likely decline as well.
If you're heavily invested in stocks, bonds are a good way to diversify your portfolio and protect yourself from market volatility. If you're near retirement or already retired, you may not have the time to ride out stock market downturns, in which case bonds are a safer place for your money.
With more than a decade or two of working years left until retirement, it's important to maintain the growth potential of your portfolio through an appropriate allocation to stocks. In your 50s, you may want to consider adding a meaningful allocation to bonds.
It seems that Buffett has softened his stance. Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes a significant amount of short-term bonds, despite its leader's infamous public position. Speaking to CNBC's Becky Quick on Aug. 3, 2023, Buffett admitted: “Berkshire bought $10 billion in U.S. Treasurys last Monday.
Warren Buffet's 2013 letter explains the 90/10 rule—put 90% of assets in S&P 500 index funds and the other 10% in short-term government bonds.
Bond returns have consistently exceeded the returns of cash and cash equivalents. From 2008-2022, bonds outperformed cash by a 2.1% annual average. While 2022 was the worst-performing year in the modern history of the bond market, the year's results failed to offset the outperformance of the preceding 15 years.
Investing in fixed-income investments results in lower returns compared to the stock market. Bonds are not risk-free investments and can experience significant losses.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
What is the downside of bonds?
Key Takeaways
These are the risks of holding bonds: Risk #1: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Risk #2: Having to reinvest proceeds at a lower rate than what the funds were previously earning. Risk #3: When inflation increases dramatically, bonds can have a negative rate of return.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Traditionally, the answer has been that bonds provide diversification and income. They zig when stocks zag, providing income for spending needs. In finance terms, bonds have “low correlation” levels to stocks, and adding them to a portfolio would help to reduce the overall portfolio risk.
Bonds with issue dates of February 2003 and later are eligible for redemption one year from the issue date. However, if a bond is cashed within the first five years after its issue date, interest earned during the three months prior to cashing will be forfeited.
Indeed, a good mix of equities (yes, even at age 70), bonds and cash can help you achieve long-term success, pros say. One rough rule of thumb is that the percentage of your money invested in stocks should equal 110 minus your age, which in your case would be 40%. The rest should be in bonds and cash.
Wealthy individuals put about 15% of their assets into fixed-income investments. These are stable investments, like bonds, that earn income over a set period of time. For example, some bonds, like Series I Savings Bonds, pay 4.3% right now and pay out the interest every six months.
Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio that supports its huge insurance business is heavily tilted toward stocks and cash. The company's bond portfolio is trivial in comparison. Insurers invest the proceeds from insurance premiums and earn returns on those investments before paying out any claims.
There are various rules of thumb you can use to determine your ideal asset allocation. The 60/40 rule, for example, dictates having 60% of your portfolio in stocks and 40% dedicated to bonds. Or you may use the rule of 100 or 120 instead, which advocates subtracting your age from 100 or 120.
Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.
At what age should you get out of the stock market?
Key Takeaways:
The 100-minus-your-age long-term savings rule is designed to guard against investment risk in retirement. If you're 60, you should only have 40% of your retirement portfolio in stocks, with the rest in bonds, money market accounts and cash.
According to Buffett, you should invest 90% of your retirement funds in stock-based index funds. According to Buffett, the remaining 10% should be invested in short-term government bonds. The government uses these to finance its projects.
Bonds offer a fixed, predictable income from interest. They are also more liquid and may see greater returns than CDs. However, if you're looking for a highly secure and easy way to earn interest, CDs may be more suitable to your goals.
The broader economic situation and interest rates can greatly impact the decision to move a 401k into bonds. When interest rates are high, newly issued bonds will have higher yields, making them more attractive. However, in a low-interest-rate environment, bonds may not provide the desired returns.
Over the past 40 years, bonds have averaged a 6.4% annual return—about 1.5 times the 4.1% return of cash. Bonds have also been consistent outperformers: In the 433 months from January 1986 to April 2022, bonds had a better 5-year return in all but 10 periods—a 98% success rate (Exhibit 4).
