Are we in bear or bull market?
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
For example, I have already explained that a new bull market became official when the S&P 500 hit a new record high on Jan. 19, 2024. But the bull market actually started 15 months earlier when the S&P 500 reached its bear-market low on Oct. 12, 2022.
Key takeaways
A bear market is a 20% downturn in stock market indexes from recent highs. A bull market occurs when stock market indexes are rising, eventually hitting new highs.
“This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”
History says no. Based on the stock market's historic performance, there's never necessarily a bad time to buy -- as long as you keep a long-term outlook. The market can be volatile in the short term (even in strong economic times), but it has a perfect track record of seeing positive returns over many years.
Looking at the numbers, more good news could be in store for the bulls. 2024 is off to a strong start. The first three months of the year have been positive, marking a five-month streak of stock market wins. Strong starts to the year typically lead to above-average performance over the rest of the year.
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
| Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
| Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 255.3% |
Last year we entered a bear market, and although the S&P 500 is up 12% this year and has been even higher, we are still officially in a bear market. You can see from this chart when the market began to climb after crashing in 2020 and stayed elevated until last year. ^SPX data by YCharts.
Or people who check too often get concerned because they see negative numbers, they see their balance going down and those people can start to feel maybe overly nervous about holding stocks. So they'll back away from stocks and they'll sell their stocks at a time when prices are down, which is not what you want to do.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
At what age should you get out of the stock market?
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
The US stock market enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2024, advancing 10%. But inflation was stickier than some expected. In fact, the March CPI number that came out this morning was hotter than expected, too. And that's leading many to question when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Time is your most valuable resource when building wealth in the stock market. So rather than waiting for the ideal time to invest, it's often better to buy now and hold your investments for the long term. Even if you invest at the "wrong" time, it can still pay off over time.
Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).
Is now a good time to invest in stocks? If you're looking to invest for your future -- five, 10, or 40 years from now -- now is as good a time as ever to buy stocks. Despite ongoing recession fears, it's important to remember the market is forward-looking. Stock values are based on future expected earnings.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
When did the bull market start? The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
- SoundHound AI and Sweetgreen are up 174% and 116% so far in 2024.
- SoundHouse AI is seeing its platform for conversational intelligence explode in popularity.
- Sweetgreen has quadrupled over the past year, but it's still a broken IPO with potential to harvest.
Which stock will double in 1 month?
| S.No. | Name | 1mth return % |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Hindustan Zinc | 38.41 |
| 2. | Lloyds Metals | 26.28 |
| 3. | NMDC | 16.74 |
| 4. | Apar Inds. | 15.58 |
- Coca-Cola. (NASDAQ: KO) ...
- Altria. (NASDAQ: MO) ...
- Amazon.com. (NASDAQ: AMZN) ...
- Celgene. (NASDAQ: CELG) ...
- Apple. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ...
- Alphabet. (NASDAQ:GOOG) ...
- Gilead Sciences. (NASDAQ: GILD) ...
- Microsoft. (NASDAQ: MSFT)
It defines a bear market as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 from its previous peak. It ends when the index reaches its low before then going on to set a new high. S&P uses closing prices for its calculations. Bull markets in both stocks and bonds are far more common than bear markets.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
Here are two key technical indicators used to recognize bear markets: Moving Averages: Moving averages are widely used in technical analysis to smoothen price data and identify trends. The 200-day moving average is a common indicator used to determine the long-term trend of a stock or market index.
