Are we currently in bear or bull market?
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.
Key takeaways
A bear market is a 20% downturn in stock market indexes from recent highs. A bull market occurs when stock market indexes are rising, eventually hitting new highs. Historically, bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets.
“This new bull market can last for another seven to nine years, as AI is expected to drive significant productivity gains for companies across the board, which will strengthen corporate earnings.”
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Wall Street analysts ultimately expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by roughly 11% in 2024. And by the fourth quarter, growth is expected to have roughly evened out, with the top 10 stocks expected to see growth of 17.2% while the other 490 companies see growth of 17.8%, according to FactSet data.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
What market type are we currently in?
Last year we entered a bear market, and although the S&P 500 is up 12% this year and has been even higher, we are still officially in a bear market. You can see from this chart when the market began to climb after crashing in 2020 and stayed elevated until last year.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
Or people who check too often get concerned because they see negative numbers, they see their balance going down and those people can start to feel maybe overly nervous about holding stocks. So they'll back away from stocks and they'll sell their stocks at a time when prices are down, which is not what you want to do.
If Monday may be the best day of the week to buy stocks, then Thursday or early Friday may be the best day to sell stock—before prices dip.
A New Bull Market Has Begun, but It's Not Too Late to Buy This Unstoppable Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock. The S&P 500 index bottomed in October 2022 following a 10-month slide that culminated in a technical bear market.
Investors who want to benefit from a bull market should buy early in order to take advantage of rising prices and sell them when they've reached their peak. Although it is hard to determine when the bottom and peak will take place, most losses will be minimal and are usually temporary.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.
| Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
|---|---|
| Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) | 182% |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
| Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
| Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
What are the best stocks to invest in 2024?
| Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
|---|---|
| Meta Platforms Inc. (META) | -1.9% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) | -3.4% |
| Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
| Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
The shift up in portfolio returns reflects a 7.4% expected annualized return for U.S. stocks in the next 10 years, up from the 6.5% assumption made last year.
| Company | 3-Year Sales Growth CAGR | Industry |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) | 39% | Semiconductors |
| Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) | 7% | Streaming entertainment |
| Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) | 10% | E-commerce and cloud computing |
| Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) | 10% | Digital advertising |
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
You should always stay on the same side of momentum. So, you can buy high and wait for the stock to go higher; or you can use dips to buy. Either ways, you should never try to outguess the market. In a bull market, the very idea of selling against momentum can land you in big losses.
