Financial analysts and the financial media often refer to U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) as risk-free investments. And it's true. The United States government has never defaulted on a debt or missed a payment on a debt. You would have to envision the utter collapse of the government to find a scenario that would involve losing any of the principal invested in a T-bond.
Key Takeaways
- There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds.
- There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere.
- Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.
The crucial word above is "principal." In investing, the safest investments have the lowest returns. And accepting a low return is in itself a risky decision.
Understanding U.S. Treasury Bond Risk
Most investments in debt, from corporate bonds to mortgage-backed securities, carry some degree of default risk. The investor accepts the risk that the borrower will be unable to keep up the interest payments or return the principal invested.
In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment.
This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. That means the Federal Reserve. Investors know that the Treasury Department will pay them back even if the Fed's balance sheet is ugly.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
Inflation
Every economy experiences inflation from time to time, to one degree or another. T-bonds have a low yield, or return on investment. A little bit of inflation can erase that return, and a little more can effectively eat into your savings.
That is, an investment of $1,000 in a T-bond for one year at 1% interest would get you $1,010. But if inflation was 2%, the initial investment when it is returned will have the buying power of a little under $990.
Interest Rate Risk
When interest rates rise, the market value of debt securities tends to drop. This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.
Opportunity Costs
All financial decisions, even T-bond investments, carry opportunity costs.
An investor who purchases a $1,000 T-bond loses the chance to invest or spend that $1,000 elsewhere. The investor might have been better off putting $1,000 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offered a greater potential for return along with a greater risk of principal loss. For that matter, the investor might have bought a new laptop for $1,000. If inflation continues at its current pace, that model will cost $1,025 a year from now.
FAQs
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
What are the risks of investing in Treasuries? ›
Treasury bonds are widely considered a risk-free investment because the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. However, investors should understand that even U.S. government bonds have interest rate risk. That is, if market interest rates rise, the prices of these bonds will fall, as they did throughout 2022.
What are the risks of investing in bonds? ›
Bonds are considered as a safe investment & also come with some risks which are Default Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Reinvestment Risk, Liquidity Risk, and Call Risk. Investors who like to take risks tend to make more money, but they might feel worried when the stock market goes down.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of investing in a Treasury bond? ›
They have tax advantages and are generally low risk. They earn interest until their maturity date, so they're good for earning steady cashflow. But Treasury bonds are not risk-free and are still vulnerable to changes in market interest rates and inflation.
What are the two greatest risks for the owners of Treasury securities? ›
Like all guaranteed financial instruments, Treasuries are vulnerable to both inflation and changes in interest rates.
What are the biggest risks in Treasury? ›
Types of Treasury Risk
Treasury departments face various risks that require careful management. The most common types of treasury risk include liquidity risk, market risk, operational risk, and counterparty risk.
What are the disadvantages of Treasury bonds? ›
But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered. If you're interested in investing in Treasury bonds or have other questions about your portfolio, consider speaking with a financial advisor.
Are treasury bonds risk free? ›
Treasury bonds are considered safer than corporate bonds—you're practically guaranteed not to lose money—but there are other potential risks to be aware of. These stable investments aren't known for their high returns. Gains can be further diminished by inflation and changing interest rates.
What is the major disadvantage of investing in bonds? ›
Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks. Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.
Are bonds high risk or low risk? ›
The bond market is no exception to this rule. Bonds in general are considered less risky than stocks for several reasons: Bonds carry the promise of their issuer to return the face value of the security to the holder at maturity; stocks have no such promise from their issuer.
After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
What are the disadvantages of TreasuryDirect? ›
Securities purchased through TreasuryDirect cannot be sold in the secondary market before they mature. This lack of liquidity could be a disadvantage for investors who may need to access their investment capital before the securities' maturity.
Do you pay taxes on Treasury bonds? ›
Interest from Treasuries is generally taxable at the federal level, but not at the state level. Interest from munis is generally exempt from federal taxes, and if you live in the state where the bond was issued, the interest may also be exempt from state taxes.
What type of risk do Treasury bonds have? ›
Interest Rate Risk
Just as prices can rise in an economy, so too can interest rates. As a result, Treasury bonds are exposed to interest rate risk. If interest rates are rising in an economy, the existing T-bond and its fixed interest rate may underperform newly issued bonds, which would pay a higher interest rate.
What are the three major risks when investing in bonds? ›
- Credit Risk — The risk that a bond's issuer will go into default before a bond reaches maturity.
- Market Risk — The risk that a bond's value will fluctuate with changing market conditions.
- Interest Rate Risk — The risk that a bond's price will fall with rising interest rates.
While Treasury bonds don't have a serious risk that the government won't pay you back, they do have two other risks that are typical of bonds: inflation risk and interest rate risk. While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years.
Can you lose money investing in Treasuries? ›
The No. 1 advantage that T-bills offer relative to other investments is the fact that there's virtually zero risk that you'll lose your initial investment. The government backs these securities so there's much less need to worry that you could lose money in the deal compared to other investments.
What is the disadvantage of buying treasury bills? ›
Pros and Cons
T-bills have interest rate risk, which means there is a risk that existing bondholders might lose out on higher rates in the future.
What is one disadvantage of investing in US Treasuries? ›
Inflation Risk: Short-term treasuries are vulnerable to inflation risk, especially if inflation rates outpace the yields on the investments. Inflation can erode the purchasing power of the investment's returns.
Are Treasuries safe during a recession? ›
Federal bonds or US Treasury bonds are issued by the Federal Reserve System (made up of the central bank and monetary authority of the United States.) Investors favor Treasury bonds during a recession because they're considered to be a safe investment.
