'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029 (2024)

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  • The stock market is on track for a decade-long bull market driven by the rise of millennials, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
  • Lee said the S&P 500 could hit 19,349 by 2029 as the most populous American generation enters its prime earning years and forms families.
  • Lee's sky-high price target for the S&P 500 represents potential upside of 313% and a CAGR of 20%.

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'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029 (2)

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'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029 (3)

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While Fundstrat's Tom Lee has bullish expectations for 2022, forecasting a return of at least 11% for the S&P 500, it's his long-term outlook that is especially eye-popping.

In a presentation to clients on Tuesday, he outlined how millennials are set to fuel a decade-long bull market in stocks as America's most populous generation enters its peak earning years and begins to form families.

"The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials," Lee explained, noting that stocks boomed when Baby Boomers and Generation X entered the age range of 30 to 50 years old.

He said the S&P 500 could surge to 19,349 by 2029, representing potential upside of 313% from current levels. A surge to that level would translate to a compounded annual growth rate of 20%, well above the stock market's historic average of between 7% and 10%.

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Supporting Lee's bull thesis is the fact that many mega-cap companies today were founded by business leaders who were in their 30's at the time, including Costco, Home Depot, Cisco, and Oracle, among others. Additionally, US patent issuances tend to spike when the US sees a surge in its population of 30 to 50 year olds, indicating that innovation is strong.

The millennial generation overtook Baby Boomers in population size around 2015, and the most populous age in America right now is about 31 years old.

Lee follows demographics because they tend to serve as a leading indicator in identifying potential tops and bottoms in the stock market. He noted the number of adults between the age of 30 and 50 years old fell until 2008, as the Great Recession took hold. That age group is set to accelerate until 2026, and the number of millennials in that range won't decelerate until the early 2030's, according to Lee.

"Demographics of the US are turning into a tailwind right now...so we have this 14-year window ahead of us where we have a demographic tailwind...if this plays out we still have a very strong bull market ahead," he said.

'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029 (4)

Fundstrat
'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029 (2024)

FAQs

'The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials': Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees the S&P 500 soaring 313% by 2029? ›

"The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials," Lee explained, noting that stocks boomed when Baby Boomers and Generation X entered the age range of 30 to 50 years old. He said the S&P 500 could surge to 19,349 by 2029, representing potential upside of 313% from current levels.

Why is the stock market so bullish? ›

However, when recent data showed hotter-than-expected economic growth and a pickup in inflation, investors remained bullish. They simply shifted the narrative, indicating their belief that a reaccelerating economy and strong company profits will lift markets.

Why is the stock market so high? ›

The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have also notched records, with the Dow passing the 40,000-point milestone last week. Analysts say a strong economy, moderating inflation, robust corporate profits, and trust in the Federal Reserve are buoying investor confidence and helping stocks rise.

What is the S&P 500 by 2050? ›

The S&P 500® Net Zero 2050 Paris-Aligned ESG+ Index is designed to measure the performance of eligible equity securities from the S&P 500, selected and weighted to be collectively compatible with a 1.5ºC global warming climate scenario at the index level.

What is the S&P 500 prediction for 2040? ›

SPDR S&P 500 ETF tokenized stock FTX Long-term Price Prediction. Below is a summary of SPY long-term price prediction from 2024 to 2050 with SPDR S&P 500 ETF tokenized stock FTX price predicted to reach the highest point of $501.10 in 2024 and $1,404.28 in 2040.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

Are we in a bull market in 2024? ›

With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Is now a good time to invest in the stock market? ›

Based on the stock market's historic performance, there's never necessarily a bad time to buy -- as long as you keep a long-term outlook. The market can be volatile in the short term (even in strong economic times), but it has a perfect track record of seeing positive returns over many years.

What are the three main reasons stock prices go up? ›

In summary, the key fundamental factors are as follows: The level of the earnings base (represented by measures such as EPS, cash flow per share, dividends per share) The expected growth in the earnings base. The discount rate, which is itself a function of inflation.

Will the S&P 500 go up in 2024? ›

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 10.4% in 2024, LSEG data showed. But stocks are also at high valuation levels. The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio - a commonly used metric to value stocks - of 20.9, well above the index's historic average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

How much will S&P be worth in 10 years? ›

Stock market forecast for the next decade
YearPrice
20276200
20286725
20297300
20308900
5 more rows
Apr 26, 2024

What is the 20 year return of the S&P 500? ›

Average returns
PeriodAverage annualised returnTotal return
Last year25.7%25.7%
Last 5 years14.2%94.5%
Last 10 years15.3%316.2%
Last 20 years10.6%651.5%

What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›

Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).

What is the year end target for S&P 2024? ›

The revised estimates from strategists now put their average year-end target for the S&P 500 at 5,289, implying a decline of less than 1% from Monday's levels, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the average target was around 5,117 (see table below).

What is the stock market prediction for 2024? ›

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Is it good if a stock is bullish? ›

For instance, let's say you're watching the financial news and a pundit says that she is “bullish on Company XYZ.” This means that that particular analyst believes that shares of Company XYZ are about to grow, potentially resulting in big gains in value for shareholders.

Why is the stock market going up in 2024? ›

2024 stock market outlook

In fact, the Fed's monetary policy could be one of the biggest driving forces of market growth. Mukherjee says that interest rates are likely to fall through the year as the Fed becomes less hawkish and inflation continues to decline alongside moderate economic growth.

Why do stocks suddenly go up? ›

If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.

How long do bull markets usually last? ›

3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.

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