Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says (2024)

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Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says? ›

Stocks are in a bubble that will keep inflating until 2025 and push the market 30% higher, research firm says. The stock market is in a bubble, but that doesn't mean investors should sell their stocks right now. The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics.

That suggests the S&P 500 could trade to 6,000 by August 2025, and to as high as 6,150 by November 2025. But in the short-term, amid the ongoing weakness in stocks, Suttmeier said investors should keep an eye on potential support levels for the S&P 500 at 5,000 as well as a range from 4,600 to 4,800.

A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

The bubble theory is any economic or financial theory that recognizes the existence of or seeks to explain bubbles in market prices. Prices of any asset can get much higher than apparent values warrant from time to time, but how long the bubble will last may be difficult to predict or even detect.

A range of things can happen when an asset bubble finally bursts, as it always does, eventually. Sometimes, the effect can be small, causing losses to only a few, and/or short-lived. At other times, it can trigger a stock market crash, a general economic recession, or even depression.

Pros of Market Bubbles

Investors can make plenty of money in the market during the early stages of a market bubble. In addition, high-quality companies can take advantage of inflated stock prices to issue equity offerings, selling shares of stock to raise money they need to invest in future growth or pay down debt.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate headed by legendary investor Warren Buffett, has the most expensive stock in the world, with shares trading at over $400,000 each.

Minsky identified the five stages to a credit cycle – displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.

How do you survive a stock market bubble? ›

Other smart advice for protecting your portfolio against a market crash includes hedging your bets by playing the options game; paying off debts to keep a stable balance sheet, and using tax-loss harvesting to mitigate your losses.

When it comes to sheer size and scale, few bubbles match the dotcom bubble of the 1990s. The average U.S. home lost one-third of its value when the housing bubble burst in 2009, resulting in the largest global economic contraction since the 1930s Depression, ushering in what has come to be known as the Great Recession.

The stock market bubble of the 1920s, the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, and the real estate bubble of the 2000s were asset bubbles followed by sharp economic downturns. Asset bubbles are especially devastating for individuals and businesses who invest too late, meaning shortly before the bubble bursts.

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

U.S. stocks aren't in a bubble - at least not yet, according to a team of analysts at TS Lombard. While stocks are certainly looking frothy, they're missing one key ingredient that has been abundant at practically every preceding bubble peak: leverage.

Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.

The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.

U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward

This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.

The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.

The AI-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said rising interest rates and higher inflation will weigh down equity valuations. "We suspect that the bubble will ultimately burst beyond the end of next year, causing a correction in valuations."