Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

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The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on the latest inflation data and other factors, experts predict.

That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct. 31, 2023.

Despite the expected rate decline, I bonds are "still a good deal" for long-term investors, according to Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts.com, which closely tracks these assets.

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Meanwhile, short-term investors currently have higher-yield options, such as Treasury bills, money market funds or some certificates of deposit.

Backed by the U.S. government, demand has soared for I bonds amid higher inflation, particularly after the annual rate hit 9.62% in May 2022. Next month, the rate could drop to around 4.27%, some experts predict.

How the I bond rate works

The U.S. Department of the Treasury adjusts I bond rates every May and November. That yield changes based on a variable and fixed portion.

The Treasury adjusts the variable part every six months based on the consumer price index, which is a key measure of inflation. The agency can change the fixed portion or keep it the same.

The fixed portion of the I bond rate stays the same for investors after purchase. The variable rate portion resets every six months starting on the investor's I bond purchase date, not when the Treasury Department announces rate adjustments. You can find each rate by purchase datehere.

Currently, the variable rate is 3.94% and the fixed rate is 1.3%, for a combined rounded yield of 5.27% for I bonds purchased between Nov. 1 and April 30.

The 1.3% fixed rate "makes it very attractive" for investors who want to preserve purchasing power long term, according to Tumin.

How the fixed rate could change

Since the variable rate for I bonds is based on six months of inflation data, experts agree it will fall from 3.94% to 2.96% in May. The fixed portion is harder to predict because the Treasury does not disclose its formula for changes.

David Enna, founder of Tipswatch.com, a website thattracks Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS,and I bond rates, expects the fixed rate will be 1.2% or 1.3% in May.

But "1.4% is not out of the question," he said.

Enna looks at a half-year average of real yields for 5- and 10-year TIPS to predict fixed rate changes. The real yield reflects how much TIPS investors earn yearly above inflation until maturity.

A possible fixed rate change from 1.3% to 1.4% "isn't enough to make a huge difference," but investors always prefer the higher rate, he added.

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (1)

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Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say (2024)

FAQs

Series I bonds are ‘still a good deal’ despite an expected falling rate in May, experts say? ›

The annual rate for Series I bonds could fall below 5% in May based on inflation and other factors, financial experts say. That would be lower than the current 5.27% interest on I bond purchases made before May 1, but higher than the 4.3% interest offered on new I bonds bought between May 1, 2023, and Oct.

What is the projected I bond rate in May 2024? ›

The May I Bond composite rate is 4.28% (US Treasury) which is 2.14% earned over 6 months. Breaking News: Official Treasury I Bond Rate announced! The May 2024 I Bond Fixed Rate is 1.30%.

What is the expected I series bond rate? ›

Series I bonds will pay 4.28% annual interest from May 1 through October 2024, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced Tuesday. Linked to inflation, the latest I bond rate is down from the 5.27% annual rate offered since November and slightly lower than the 4.3% from May 2023.

Is there a downside to Series I bonds? ›

I bond cons

The initial rate is only guaranteed for the first six months of ownership. After that, the rate can fall, down to a fixed-rate component which, as of May 2024, stood at 1.3%. One-year lockup.

Will I bond go up or down in May? ›

The U.S. Department of the Treasury adjusts I bond rates — with a variable and fixed-rate portion — every May and November. Based on the last six months of inflation data, the variable portion will fall from 3.94% to 2.96% in May. The fixed-rate portion is harder to predict, but experts say it could stay close to 1.3%.

How long should you hold series I bonds? ›

Can I cash it in before 30 years? You can cash in (redeem) your I bond after 12 months. However, if you cash in the bond in less than 5 years, you lose the last 3 months of interest. For example, if you cash in the bond after 18 months, you get the first 15 months of interest.

Are I bonds still a good investment? ›

I bonds issued from May 1, 2024, to Oct. 31, 2024, have a composite rate of 4.28%. That includes a 1.30% fixed rate and a 1.48% inflation rate. Because the U.S. government backs I bonds, they're considered relatively safe investments.

What is the current 6 month interest rate for a Series I bond? ›

What is the current I bond rate? The current composite I bond rate is 4.28%. This includes a 1.30% fixed rate and a 1.48% inflation rate. The current rate applies for six months to bonds purchased between May 1, 2024, and Oct.

Can I buy $10,000 worth of I bonds every year? ›

Yes, you can purchase up to $10,000 in electronic I bonds each calendar year. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your federal tax return.

How do Series I bond interest rates work? ›

I bonds earn interest from the first day of the month you buy them. Twice a year, we add all the interest the bond earned in the previous 6 months to the main (principal) value of the bond.

Can you ever lose money on an I bond? ›

You can count on a Series I bond to hold its value; that is, the bond's redemption value will not decline.

Should I cash in my Series I bonds? ›

Chances are you bought your I Bonds at the 0.0% fixed rate in 2021 or 2022, so as they are renewing your rates are coming in below 4%, compared to other interest rate accounts at roughly 5%. Keep in mind that cashing out in the first 5 years will cause you to lose your prior 3 months' interest.

How do you avoid taxes on Series I bonds? ›

You can skip paying taxes on interest earned with Series EE and Series I savings bonds if you're using the money to pay for qualified higher education costs. That includes expenses you pay for yourself, your spouse or a qualified dependent. Only certain qualified higher education costs are covered, including: Tuition.

Will I bonds go up in May 2024? ›

May 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued May 2024 through October 2024 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.70% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.28%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months. The EE bond fixed rate applies to a bond's 20-year original maturity.

Should I wait until May to buy I bonds? ›

I recommend setting the date at April 25 or 26 to give Treasury time to complete the transaction in April. If you wait until April 30, your I Bond will be issued in May. The rollover strategy. With the variable rate dropping to 2.96%, I Bonds with a fixed rate of 0.0% will be paying 2.96% for six months.

Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.

How high will interest rates go in 2024? ›

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

What is the 6 month Treasury bill rate? ›

6 Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 5.18%, compared to 5.18% the previous market day and 5.20% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 4.49%. The 6 Month Treasury Bill Rate is the yield received for investing in a US government issued treasury bill that has a maturity of 6 months.

How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 20 years? ›

How to get the most value from your savings bonds
Face ValuePurchase Amount20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000)
$50 Bond$100$109.52
$100 Bond$200$219.04
$500 Bond$400$547.60
$1,000 Bond$800$1,095.20
May 7, 2024

Do you pay taxes on I bonds? ›

How much tax do I owe on my I bonds? Interest on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxes but taxed at the federal level at ordinary income-tax rates.

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