The longest-running bull market in history celebrated its 10-year anniversary on Sat., March 9, 2019. It all started from the post-crisis low of March 9, 2009. The S&P 500's (SPX) closing price on that fateful day in early 2009 was precisely 676.53. As of the market close on Wed., Oct. 9, 2019, the S&P 500 settled at 2,919.40. That represents around a 330% rise in a 10-year period. Not bad for a large-cap stock index.
Key Takeaways
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history.
It’s topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
The chart below displays some of the most salient market, economic, and political events that have helped to move the S&P 500 in one direction or another during this remarkable decade-long run.
2009 Bull Market vs. History
The 2009-2019 bull run topped the nearly 10-year bull run of the 1990s. The bull run that started in Oct. 1990 lasted 113 months, while the 2009 bull run is going on 127 months. Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven years, and it was the post-World War II run that started in 1949.
In terms of returns, the 2009 bull market has the longest streak but it remains in second in terms of the best return. The 2009 bull market has generated a 330% return since the March 2009 low. The bull market of the 1990s saw the S&P 500 post a 417% return over its nearly nine and a half years.
Meanwhile, the bull market following the Great Depression is close behind our current bull market. The Great Depression bull market started in June 1932, lasting 57 months, with the S&P 500 posting a 325% gain over that time.
Major Moves of This Bull Market
Some of the biggest and scariest drops during this recent bull market have been attributed simply to surging investor fear. This includes the 2011 anxieties over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis. It also includes the most recent market plummet in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of this massive drop was caused by fears of a global economic slowdown, a U.S.-China trade war, and rising U.S. interest rates.
Other market drops were triggered by freakish circ*mstances, including the 2010 'flash crash' and the 'Volmageddon' volatility eruption in early 2018. Also of note on this chart, the UK's Brexit referendum in mid-2016 (in which a majority of the UK public voted to leave the EU) registered only as a relatively limited and short-lived blip in the U.S. markets. Finally, when the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in earnest around the end of 2016 into 2017, the stock market took it in stride and continued to rise sharply.
What's Next for the Bull Market
The big question now, of course, is whether this 10-year rally will continue. Bull markets end with recessions, and while we've seen many bumps on the road to where we are now, the stock market has managed to recover (at least eventually) each and every time. There will always be serious risk factors and fears that pervade markets.
Late in 2018 was a rather severe example of this. But we don't believe this bull market, though it's been exceptionally long, has run its course just yet. Many economists still see growth in the economy and aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon. Unemployment continues to fall and the recent corporate tax rate cuts can help keep spending elevated.
Key Takeaways. The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months. However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 10 Years
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 12.58% over the last 10 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 9.52%.
Bull Market of 2009-2020: The Great Recession Recovery
The S&P 500's more than 400% gain during this bull market was driven in large part by big tech stocks Facebook (META) (now Meta Platforms), Amazon.com, Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL) (now Alphabet), a group collectively known as the FAANG stocks.
There are two general periods where stocks realized a negative return over a 10-year span: one during the Great Depression in the 1930s and the other during the Great Recession in 2008.
The tech boom bull market is the biggest and longest bull market ever recorded in the history of the S&P 500, returning a stunning 582% and lasting a total of 4494 days (12 years and 4 months). This period of sustained growth started in 1987 and ended dramatically with the dot-com bust.
If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.
Sometimes the best years followed big down years (1958 & 1975). Sometimes big up years were followed by down years (1928, 1933, 1936 & 1945). And sometimes big up years were followed by big up years (1927, 1935, 1954, 1958, 1975 & 1995).
Lower rates are likely ahead as inflation "drastically" improves in the second half of 2024, according to Detrick at the Carson Group. "It is an election year, so expect some bumps, but overall the bull market that stared in October 2022 is alive and well."
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
The 1930s were a little rough. The only other time the market experienced negative returns over 10 years was starting with the bursting of the dot-com at the start of the 2000s followed by the Great Financial Crisis hitting towards the end of that decade.
The September Effect refers to the historically weak stock market returns observed during the month of September. In fact, September has been the worst performing month, on average, going back nearly a century.
Some sources (including the file Highlights/Lowlights of The Dow on the Dow Jones website) show a loss of −24.39% (from 71.42 to 54.00) on December 12, 1914, placing that day atop the list of largest percentage losses.
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
The current bull market is the longest on record. It began in March 2009 and has been fuelled by record-low interest rates and the easy monetary policies adopted by central banks which has made it cheap to borrow money.
S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 70.94%, compared to 85.38% last month and 57.45% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.28%. The S&P 500 5 Year Return is the investment return received for a 5 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.
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