Goldman Predicts How US Stocks Will Look In 2030 (2024)

Someone once said the market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long. Investment bank Goldman Sachs has just gone one better – jumping into its time machine to make some landmark predictions about the state of US stocks in 2030 💫

What does this mean?

This time eight years ago, Goldman conducted a similar exercise – and predicted that the S&P 500 index of US stocks would deliver annualized returns of 8% over the subsequent decade. In the event, an investment in the US market has ended up returning 13.6% for each year since 2010.

Yet the bank remains conservative in its outlook for the next ten years. Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% –with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.

That’s less than the 9% average figure for 10-year returns over the past 140 years. But the bank is more than 90% sure that will deliver a better return than US government bonds between now and 2030… 🙏

Why should I care?

Crucially, Goldman’s also 87% sure stocks will outpace – the rate at which price rises eat away at the value of your cash.

Still, you shouldn’t abandon portfolio diversification just yet. Significant risks to the bank’s forecast for stocks include the current decline of globalization – the first since 1945 – reducing US companies’ increasingly important overseas . The first big hurdle for stocks to overcome, meanwhile, is November’s US elections, which could see US corporate taxes rise from 35-year lows 🗳

Furthermore, the biggest fillip for US stocks since 2012 – accounting for 44% of shareholder returns – was the significant increase in their prices relative to companies’ profits. When the “price-to-earnings” (P/E) ratio has previously been this high, however, the S&P 500’s average annualized return over the ten years following has historically been just 2.7% –and it’s been negative a third of the time...

Goldman Predicts How US Stocks Will Look In 2030 (2)

Don't bet it all on the stock market just yet...

Goldman Predicts How US Stocks Will Look In 2030 (2024)

FAQs

Goldman Predicts How US Stocks Will Look In 2030? ›

Combining insights from five separate methodologies, Goldman thinks investors in US stocks can expect average annualized total returns (i.e. including not just share price growth but dividends and buybacks) of 6% – with a 70% chance of returns between 2% and 11%.

What is the stock market prediction for 2030? ›

That's according to Ed Yardeni, who expects the Dow and S&P 500 to soar 50% by 2030. "That target could be achieved with a forward P/E of 20 and forward earnings at $400 per share," Yardeni said.

What are Goldman's 4 scenarios for stocks? ›

David Kostin, Goldman's chief US equity strategist, has given four scenarios for investor consideration: “(1) in a 'catch up,' the S&P 500 would end the year at 5800 (+12% from today), (2) in a 'catch-down,' the S&P 500 would fall to 4500 (-14%), (3) continued mega-cap exceptionalism would lift the index to 6000 (+15%) ...

What is the most successful stock predictor? ›

AltIndex – We found that AltIndex is the most accurate stock predictor for 2024. Unlike other providers in this space, AltIndex relies on alternative data points, such as social media sentiment and website analytics. It also uses artificial intelligence to convert its findings into risk-averse stock picks.

What is Goldman Sachs forecast for stock market? ›

The S&P 500 Index is forecast to return 6% in 2024

In their 2024 US Equity Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research expects US stocks to have a modest return next year, as above-consensus economic growth is partly offset by high equity valuations.

What is the main stock forecast for 2030? ›

According to our Main Street Capital stock prediction for 2030, MAIN stock will be priced at $ 62.40 in 2030. This forecast is based on the stock's average growth over the past 10 years.

What is the stock prediction for Tell in 2030? ›

Tellurian Stock Prediction 2030

In 2030, the Tellurian stock will reach $ 143.13 if it maintains its current 10-year average growth rate. If this Tellurian stock prediction for 2030 materializes, TELL stock will grow 27,970.88% from its current price.

What are the 4 pillars of Goldman Sachs? ›

Goldman Sachs' business model is based on four primary pillars: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management.

What is the S&P 500 forecast for 2024? ›

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

What is the algorithm for predicting stocks? ›

The LSTM algorithm has the ability to store historical information and is widely used in stock price prediction (Heaton et al. 2016). For stock price prediction, LSTM network performance has been greatly appreciated when combined with NLP, which uses news text data as input to predict price trends.

What is the most successful stock of all time? ›

The Best Performing Stocks in History
  • Coca-Cola. (NASDAQ: KO) ...
  • Altria. (NASDAQ: MO) ...
  • Amazon.com. (NASDAQ: AMZN) ...
  • Celgene. (NASDAQ: CELG) ...
  • Apple. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ...
  • Alphabet. (NASDAQ:GOOG) ...
  • Gilead Sciences. (NASDAQ: GILD) ...
  • Microsoft. (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Who is the most accurate stock analyst? ›

Mark Lipacis ranks No. 1 out of the 8,371 analysts tracked on TipRanks. The five-star analyst has an overall success rate of 73%.

Which is the most successful stock indicator? ›

Seven of the best indicators for day trading are:
  • On-balance volume (OBV)
  • Accumulation/distribution (A/D) line.
  • Average directional index.
  • Aroon oscillator.
  • Moving average convergence divergence (MACD)
  • Relative strength index (RSI)
  • Stochastic oscillator.

What stocks does Goldman Sachs recommend? ›

Noteworthy among them are Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). To compile our roster of Goldman Sachs' top stock picks for 2024, we reviewed the bank's submissions to the SEC, pinpointing its 15 most substantial investment holdings.

Who owns the most Goldman Sachs stock? ›

According to the latest TipRanks data, approximately 19.34% of Goldman Sachs Group (GS) stock is held by retail investors. Who owns the most shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS)? Vanguard owns the most shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS).

Is Goldman Sachs a buy sell or hold? ›

Goldman Sachs stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 69 buy ratings, 25 hold ratings, and 1 sell ratings.

How much will the stock market grow in the next 10 years? ›

It's all about valuation

It analyzes historical data to try and predict what returns will be over the next 10 years. According to this model, U.S. equities are set to produce annualized returns of just 4.7% in the next decade. That's a huge slowdown from the past decade.

What is the stock market prediction for 2029? ›

He said the S&P 500 could surge to 19,349 by 2029, representing potential upside of 313% from current levels. A surge to that level would translate to a compounded annual growth rate of 20%, well above the stock market's historic average of between 7% and 10%.

How much will the S&P 500 be worth in 2030? ›

Stock market forecast for the next decade
YearPrice
20276200
20286725
20297300
20308900
5 more rows

How much will stocks grow in 20 years? ›

5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023)Average annual S&P 500 return
15 years (2009-2023)12.63%
20 years (2004-2023)9.00%
25 years (1999-2023)7.18%
30 years (1994-2023)9.67%
2 more rows
Mar 5, 2024

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