Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames 'Lack of Progress' on Inflation (2024)

Money Banking

Article updated on May 02, 2024

You'll likely pay more to borrow until at least 2025, but now may be the time to lock in higher savings rates.

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Tiffany Wendeln Connors is a senior editor for CNET Money with a focus on credit cards. Previously, she covered personal finance topics as a writer and editor at The Penny Hoarder. She is passionate about helping people make the best money decisions for themselves and their families. She graduated from Bowling Green State University with a bachelor's degree in journalism and has been a writer and editor for publications including the New York Post, Women's Running magazine and Soap Opera Digest. When she isn't working, you can find her enjoying life in St. Petersburg, Florida, with her husband, daughter and a very needy dog.

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Tiffany Wendeln Connors is a senior editor for CNET Money with a focus on credit cards. Previously, she covered personal finance topics as a writer and editor at The Penny Hoarder. She is passionate about helping people make the best money decisions for themselves and their families. She graduated from Bowling Green State University with a bachelor's degree in journalism and has been a writer and editor for publications including the New York Post, Women's Running magazine and Soap Opera Digest. When she isn't working, you can find her enjoying life in St. Petersburg, Florida, with her husband, daughter and a very needy dog.

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Courtney Johnston is a senior editor leading the CNET Money team. Passionate about financial literacy and inclusion, she has a decade of experience as a freelance journalist covering policy, financial news, real estate and investing. A New Jersey native, she graduated with an M.A. in English Literature and Professional Writing from the University of Indianapolis, where she also worked as a graduate writing instructor.

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Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames 'Lack of Progress' on Inflation (9)

Key takeaways

  • The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, saying it wants “greater confidence” that inflation is moving sustainably toward the central bank’s 2% goal.
  • Inflation has been higher than expected for the first three months of 2024, squashing hopes that it had been tamed enough to lower interest rates.
  • Even if the Fed cuts rates later in the year, expect credit card interest and mortgage rates to remain high through the end of 2024.
  • With APYs already on the decline for longer term CDs and some high-yield savings accounts, now is the time to lock in higher savings rates.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had some sobering words for those anxiously anticipating rate cuts in 2024: “The path forward is uncertain.”

The Fed on Wednesday decided to hold the federal funds rate at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the sixth straight time after three months of hotter-than-expected inflation reports. Inflation currently sits at 3.5% year over year, according to the Consumer Price Index’s April 10 report.

At previous meetings this year, Powell said the committee needed more data to make a decision and stuck to its forecast of three rate cuts “at some point this year.” But on Wednesday, Powell noted that a “lack of progress” on inflation in the first quarter could delay those cuts.

“Gaining greater confidence will take longer than previously expected,” Powell said during a press conference at the conclusion of the April/May Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Moving inflation sustainably toward the central bank’s goal of 2% would likely require more than a month or two of lower inflation reports, which pretty much extinguishes any hopes for interest rate cuts by this summer.

However, Powell still sounded optimistic, noting that while inflation has ticked up recently, the committee’s “longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored.”

With just five meetings left this year -- in June, July, September, November and December -- it seems unlikely the Fed will make the three cuts it predicted in December 2023, if any at all. And if inflation continues its current upward trend, the Fed could instead raise interest rates even higher.

Why hasn’t the Fed lowered interest rates?

Under pressure to keep inflation in check and maintain economic growth, the Fed is tasked with striking the right balance. Raising interest rates is one of the primary strategies the Fed can use to help control inflation. But leaving high interest rates in place for too long could create a drag on the economy as employers pull back on hiring and consumers stop spending.

After the Fed raised interest rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, inflation initially responded, falling from its high of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3% one year later. But inflation has crept back closer to 4%, above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

Many experts expect the Fed will begin dropping rates by the end of 2024, so long as inflationary pressures continue to ease.

How the Fed’s interest rate decision affects your money

Overall, it’s unlikely we’ll see relief from high interest rates any time soon. That means you can expect borrowing to remain high, while savings rates will also stay elevated.

Mortgages

If you’re looking to buy a home, experts don’t expect mortgage rates to cool until the Fed signals it plans to start lowering rates. And even then, it can take months for mortgage rates to see significant declines. Either way, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop back down to pandemic lows. If you’re ready to buy a home, it’s better to focus on the factors you can control, like finding a house within your budget and exploring all of your financing options.

Credit cards

Expect credit card annual percentage rates to remain high through at least the end of the year. The average credit card interest rate dipped slightly recently and stand at 20.66% as of May 1, according to CNET’s sister site Bankrate, which is still high. If you’re carrying high-interest credit card debt, create a debt repayment strategy to pay down your balance quickly and avoid paying interest charges. Consider a balance transfer or debt consolidation loan or another to help rein in what you’re paying in interest and give yourself more time to pay down your balance.

Savings and CDs

On the other hand, you can earn high interest on your savings right now. Savings rates have come down slightly from their highs in 2023, but some high-yield savings accounts and CDsstill offer annual percentage yields around 5% or higher. Rates should stay high all year, but expect small dips when the Fed signals a rate cut is likely.

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Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames ‘Lack of Progress’ on Inflation

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By Tiffany Connors

Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames 'Lack of Progress' on Inflation (10)

Written by

Tiffany Connors

Editor

Read more from Tiffany

Tiffany Wendeln Connors is a senior editor for CNET Money with a focus on credit cards. Previously, she covered personal finance topics as a writer and editor at The Penny Hoarder. She is passionate about helping people make the best money decisions for themselves and their families. She graduated from Bowling Green State University with a bachelor's degree in journalism and has been a writer and editor for publications including the New York Post, Women's Running magazine and Soap Opera Digest. When she isn't working, you can find her enjoying life in St. Petersburg, Florida, with her husband, daughter and a very needy dog.

Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames 'Lack of Progress' on Inflation (2024)

FAQs

Expect Higher Interest Rates Through the End of 2024. Fed Blames 'Lack of Progress' on Inflation? ›

Inflation has been higher than expected for the first three months of 2024, squashing hopes that it had been tamed enough to lower interest rates. Even if the Fed cuts rates later in the year, expect credit card interest and mortgage rates to remain high through the end of 2024.

What will interest rates be in 2024? ›

Will we see lower mortgage rates in 2024? Most housing market experts predict rates will end the year between 6% and 6.5%.

What is the Fed interest rate decision for May 2024? ›

During its May meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold policy rates steady for the sixth consecutive time, leaving the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%.

What happens to inflation when the Fed raises interest rates? ›

When the central bank increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive. In this environment, both consumers and businesses might think twice about taking out loans for major purchases or investments. This slows down spending, typically lowering overall demand and hopefully reducing inflation.

What is the Fed effective rate in 2024? ›

Federal Funds Effective Rate (DFF)
2024-05-21:5.33
2024-05-20:5.33
2024-05-19:5.33
2024-05-18:5.33
2024-05-17:5.33
1 more row

Will interest rates 2024 be low? ›

The general consensus among industry professionals is that mortgage rates will slowly decline in the last quarter of 2024. The projected declines have shrunk, though, in recent months. At the start of the year, for instance, Fannie Mae predicted rates would drop to 5.8%.

Will interest rates go down in 2024? ›

It's not likely to happen again." Much has been written on the prospect that the Fed might reverse course on rates in 2024. Forecasters first predicted as many as six rate cuts this year, then three. But inflation has persisted, and many economists now expect no rate cut before September.

Are CD rates going up in May 2024? ›

"CD rates will most likely drop and drop substantially in 2024," says Robert Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business at Creighton University. "The biggest reason is the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year."

What are the Fed meeting dates for 2024? ›

Federal Reserve 2024 Meeting Schedule
  • Jan. 30-31.
  • March 19-20.
  • April 30- May 1.
  • June 11-12.
  • July 30-31.
  • Sept. 17-18.
  • Nov. 6-7.
  • Dec. 17-18.
May 1, 2024

What is the current Fed interest rate? ›

What is the current Fed interest rate? Right now, the Fed interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC established that rate in late July 2023.

Who benefits from inflation? ›

Inflation allows borrowers to pay lenders back with money worth less than when it was originally borrowed, which benefits borrowers. When inflation causes higher prices, the demand for credit increases, raising interest rates, which benefits lenders.

What are the disadvantages of increasing interest rates? ›

Higher interest rates tend to negatively affect earnings and stock prices (often with the exception of the financial sector). Changes in the interest rate tend to impact the stock market quickly but often have a lagged effect on other key economic sectors such as mortgages and auto loans.

Is a high interest rate good for a savings account? ›

High-yield savings accounts can help you grow your savings faster than traditional savings accounts. The best high-yield savings rates currently range from 4.50% APY to 5.35% APY—far higher than the national average savings account rate of 0.45%, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

What will interest rates look like in 5 years? ›

ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.

What is the prime loan rate? ›

The Prime Rate is the interest rate that banks use as a basis to set rates for different types of loans, credit cards and lines of credit.

What would the goal of cutting interest rates be? ›

Lower borrowing rates for both consumers and businesses. This will incentivize consumers to spend and businesses to invest in projects thus injecting capital into the economy.

What is the interest rate forecast for 2024 2025? ›

Stronger inflation and growth reaffirm our view of a cautious easing cycle from the Fed. Hence, we now expect just two interest rate cuts in 2024 before four further cuts next year. We see a policy rate of 3.875% by year-end 2025.

What will interest rates look like in 2025? ›

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Thursday was 6.99%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's model expects 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates 5.5%.

How high will interest rates go in 2025? ›

The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December.

Can I negotiate my mortgage rate? ›

Are mortgage rates negotiable? Yes, to some degree, mortgage interest rates are negotiable. Mortgage lenders have some flexibility when it comes to the rates they offer. However, in many cases getting a lower rate on your loan will come with a price, such as paying “points” to get a lower rate.

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