Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? (2024)

FAQs

Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? ›

The 4% rule was based on a portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds. Most financial professional today will suggest that you diversify your portfolio more than this. It's likely that your actual retirement savings will differ, and they may include cash, precious metals, investment properties, and more.

If you have a large retirement investment portfolio, you might not need to spend 4% of it every year. If you have limited savings, 4% might not come close to covering your needs. Even Bengen tweaked his own rule over the years. More recently, he advised that withdrawing 4.5% the first year would be safe.

The biggest problem with the 4% rule is that life is almost never as simple as we'd all hope. There may be some years in retirement that you need more than the rule allows and some years that you need less. This could be caused by moving locations, health problems, or other life changes.

This rule is based on research finding that if you invested at least 50% of your money in stocks and the rest in bonds, you'd have a strong likelihood of being able to withdraw an inflation-adjusted 4% of your nest egg every year for 30 years (and possibly longer, depending on your investment return over that time).

Ivanna Hampton: New retirees could kick off their golden years with a familiar number, 4%. A trio of Morningstar researchers analyzed starting safe withdrawal rates from an investment portfolio to fund retirement. The future looks good, and a little flexibility could make it even better.

Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.

Every year, Morningstar recalculates its safe withdrawal rate that retirees can use to predict whether their portfolios will last 30 years. Its rate is back at 4%, up from 3.8% in 2022. The financial services company makes adjustments based on its prediction of inflation, bond yields and stock prices.

How the Four Percent Rule was Created. The four percent rule stems from historical data on stock and bond returns over the span of 50 years, between the periods of 1926-1976. Before the 1990s, many individuals believed that 5% was the appropriate benchmark value that retirees should've withdrawn each year.

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement.

The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›

However, not a huge percentage of retirees end up having that much money. In fact, statistically, around 10% of retirees have $1 million or more in savings.

It is 100% possible to retire with $400,000, provided you're not looking to enjoy a particularly expensive retirement lifestyle or hoping to leave the workforce notably early.

Withdrawing 4% or less of retirement savings each year has long been a popular rule of thumb for retirees. However, due to high inflation and market volatility, the rule is less reliable now. Retirees will need to decrease their spending and withdrawal rate to 3.3% so they don't run out of money.

The 4% rule and Social Security

You may be wondering if you should include your future Social Security income in this equation, and the simple answer is, you don't. Think of Social Security as added “security” to your retirement budget.

“This rule protects the retirement investors from improper investment recommendations and harmful conflicts of interest. Retirement investors can now trust that their investment advice provider is working in their best interest and helping to make unbiased decisions.”

One example is the $1,000/month rule. Created by Wes Moss, a Certified Financial Planner, this strategy helps individuals visualize how much savings they should have in retirement. According to Moss, you should plan to have $240,000 saved for every $1,000 of disposable income in retirement.

The 4% rule aims to minimize the risk of failure (running out of money) by being very conservative with spending early in retirement. However, this comes at the cost of potentially underutilizing one's savings and not being able to spend more if investment returns are favorable.