'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year (2024)

FAQs

Can the S&P 500 hit 6500? ›

Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

The stock market just flashed bullish a signal suggesting 19% upside by August 2025, BofA says. The S&P 500 just flashed a bullish signal that suggests a 19% gain by August 2025, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the stock market's 12 consecutive months of positive year-over-year gains.

They point to the fact that the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years and that interest rates are likely to rise. As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 5-7% per year over the next five years.

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 50 Years

The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 11.3% over the last 50 years, as of the end of February 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 50-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.18%.

Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023

I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.

Ed Yardeni, the renowned economist and market expert, has made a bold prediction for the future of the stock market. He believes that the S&P 500 could surge by a whopping 26% by 2026 to 6,500.

What is the target of the S&P 500 in 2026? ›

The bank said in a recent note that the gains in the S&P 500 should continue, suggesting that the index could rally another 34% by the end of 2026. "The SPX has rallied 46% from its October 2022 low," Stephen Suttmeier, a Bank of America technical strategist, said.

Optimistic: 6%-7% per year.

If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.

Anthony Denier, CEO of the trading platform Webull, says he believes the stock market will ultimately post a positive return in 2024 as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, he adds, we probably won't see as big of a rally as we did in 2023.

Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.

S&P 500 should end 2024 at current levels around our price target of 5,100, says BMO's Brian Belski.

The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31^st 2023, had an annual compounded rate of return of 15.2%, including reinvestment of dividends.

Bottom Line. Since 1957, the S&P 500's average annual rate of return has been approximately 10.5% (through March 2023) and around 6.6% after adjusting for inflation.

Average Market Return for the Last 30 Years

Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation).

If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, you would have about $488.05 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 388.05%, or 6.93% per year.