Bond Market Outlook: Improving Returns | Morgan Stanley (2024)

Sources:

1 FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis as of 12/29/2023.

2Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.

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The market returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices. The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Indexis an unmanaged index of domestic investment-grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. "Bloomberg®" and the Bloomberg Index/Indices used are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MSIM; does not approve, endorse, review or recommend any product; and does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy or completeness of any data or information relating to any product.

Risk Considerations: Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. Fixed income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes.

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Bond Market Outlook: Improving Returns | Morgan Stanley (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the bond market? ›

Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.

What is Morgan Stanley's outlook for 2024? ›

Recent economic indicators have prompted Morgan Stanley Research to revise its forecast for U.S. economic growth, now projecting 2.3% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

What is the outlook for Morgan Stanley research? ›

Earnings Recession in 2023 to Transition to Strong Recovery in 2024. Morgan Stanley Research strategists think U.S. corporate earnings could decline 16% in 2023 but stage a comeback in 2024 and 2025.

Will the market improve in 2024? ›

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

Is it a good time to buy bonds now? ›

Answer: Now may be the perfect time to invest in bonds. Yields are at levels you could only dream of 15 years ago, so you'd be locking in substantial, regular income. And, of course, bonds act as a diversifier to your stock portfolio.

Is the bond market going to recover? ›

Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.

Are bonds a good investment for 2024? ›

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

What is the outlook for bonds in 2024? ›

In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.) Schwab's 10-year return expectations are well below each asset class' returns from 1970 through October 2023.

Which asset class will outperform in 2024? ›

Introduction
  • Global listed infrastructure underperformed in 2023 owing to rising interest rates and a shift away from defensive assets. ...
  • Infrastructure assets are expected to see earnings growth in 2024 and beyond, aided by structural growth drivers, especially utilities which are benefiting from energy transition.

What is the best investment in 2024? ›

Overview: Best investments in 2024
  1. High-yield savings accounts. Overview: A high-yield online savings account pays you interest on your cash balance. ...
  2. Long-term certificates of deposit. ...
  3. Long-term corporate bond funds. ...
  4. Dividend stock funds. ...
  5. Value stock funds. ...
  6. Small-cap stock funds. ...
  7. REIT index funds.

How financially strong is Morgan Stanley? ›

As a result of strong net new asset growth, the Firm has reached $7 trillion of client assets across Wealth and Investment Management. Institutional Securities also saw strength across the markets and underwriting businesses. The Morgan Stanley Integrated Firm model is delivering durable results.”

Are commodities a good investment in 2024? ›

We believe a longer-term commodities bull market could resume in 2024 as they act as a hedge against global conflict and inflation.

Will stock market bounce back in 2024? ›

Earnings Rebound

Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth will accelerate to 9.7% in the second quarter and S&P 500 companies will report an impressive 10.8% earnings growth for the full calendar year in 2024.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

Will 2024 be a better year to buy? ›

"2024 is bound to be a better year for homebuyers, if only because of how terrible 2023 was," says John Graff, CEO at Ashby & Graff Real Estate. Graff anticipates falling interest rates and increasing inventory could result in more opportunities for homebuyers in the months ahead.

What are bonds expected to do in 2024? ›

For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the second half of 2024—boost bond prices. That boost could be especially big given how much money remains on the sidelines, looking for an entry point.

How will the bond market do in 2024? ›

The bond market in 2024 continues to exhibit topsy-turvy dynamics, with yields on short-term bonds exceeding those of some longer-term bonds. For example, as of May 3, 2024, 3-month Treasury bills yielded 5.45% and 2-year Treasury yields were 4.81%, compared to the 4.50% yield on the 10-year Treasury.

Is it a good time to invest in bonds in 2024? ›

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise? ›

Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.

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