As the Dow nears 40,000, here's what experts say you should do to prepare for a potential pullback (2024)

A man sits on the Wall street bull near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 24, 2020 in New York City.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The stock market could hit a milestone if the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches 40,000.

However, even as stocks have climbed higher, investors are worried there could be a pullback, financial advisors say.

They're not alone in those concerns.

A recent CNBC survey of investment professionals found 61% think the market has run too far too fast and a market drop could be coming.

"It does feel like we're at an inflection point where things could go either way," said Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning at Morningstar.

Will there be a pullback?

After a mostly uninterrupted market rally over the past four or five months, it would not be surprising to see a pullback, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

That would more likely come in the form of a temporary correction rather than a prolonged bear market, he said.

For investors who have gravitated toward cash, certificates of deposit, or bonds, a pullback may be an opportunity to deploy those funds in the market, Kourkafas said.

If you're investing toward your retirement or other life goals, it's best to avoid trying to time the market, said Ted Jenkin, a certified financial planner and the CEO and founder ofoXYGen Financial, a financial advisory and wealth management firm based in Atlanta.

"The stock market is a long-term investment," said Jenkin, who is also a member of CNBC's Financial Advisor Council.

As the Dow nears 40,000, here's what experts say you should do to prepare for a potential pullback (1)

watch now

VIDEO5:5105:51

Expect a short-term pullback after S&P 500's strong quarter: Evans May Wealth managing partner

Last Call

Will the election hurt the markets?

Investors are jittery that the presidential election results may throw the markets off track, surveys show.

But experts say those worries are misguided.

"It is really very hard to find any evidence in the data that politics is a long-term determinant of market performance," Kourkafas said.

However, there may be increased volatility in the months preceding the election, he said.

What's unique this time around is we are already familiar with both of the likely candidates — current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — and the markets have performed equally well under both leaders, he said.

Instead, the outlook may depend more on other factors such as interest rates, corporate earnings and economic growth, he said.

Financial advisors including Louis Barajas, a CFP and enrolled agent, said their clients are concerned the election may affect their portfolios.

"I tell them, 'Listen, presidents come, presidents go, the economy's going to change. But in the long term, the market tends to be up,'" said Barajas, who is CEO ofInternational Private Wealth Advisorsin Irvine, California, and also a member of the CNBC FA Council.

Barajas said he steers his clients to focus on their personal goals rather than on outside events.

How to make sure you're protected 'no matter what happens'

Today's market uncertainty is a reminder of the value of humility, said Morningstar's Benz.

And the best way to express humility in portfolios is to diversify, she said.

"No matter what happens, we're reasonably well protected," Benz said.

For young investors, that may mean moving away from U.S. stocks to non-U.S. holdings, she said. That may be done through a fund that reflects global market capitalization, such as the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF.

Older investors may want to take advantage of higher fixed-income yields and add safer assets to their portfolios, she said. That can include cash and short- and intermediate-term high-quality bonds to build a runway to spend from, even if stocks do go down.

"You can have a safer portfolio and expect to earn a decent rate of return today," Benz said.

As part of its National Financial Literacy Month efforts, CNBC will be featuring stories throughout the month dedicated to helping people manage, grow and protect their money so they can truly live ambitiously.

  • The American Dream feels out of reach even for households that bring in more than $100,000 a year
  • Op-ed: Financial literacy is the civil rights issue of this generation
  • Americans think they need almost $1.5 million to retire. Experts say to focus on another number instead
  • Op-ed: Allowances are for kids — not your spouse
  • 25% of Gen Zers say they'll need a therapist to deal with tax filing stress
  • Tax pro shares how to do your taxes and why they don't teach you in school
  • People hate budgeting. Here's why — and how to reframe it
  • Why overspending is one of the biggest financial mistakes you can make
  • I'm a certified financial planner and tax reporter at CNBC. How I tackle my own retirement tax planning
  • Four red flags for an IRS tax audit — and how to avoid the 'audit lottery,' according to tax pros
  • Nearly 1 in 5 eligible taxpayers don't claim this 'valuable credit,' IRS says
  • I opened two accounts to help grow my savings. Here's what I learned as a Gen Z personal finance reporter
  • Middle-class Americans want to know more about how the wealthy make money. Here's the answer
  • Op-ed: I'm an advisor who helps clients navigate layoffs. Here's my best advice to prepare

If you're already in retirement and spending from your portfolio, it's worth having those safeguards in place.

Finding the right mix of assets will depend on your personal timeline.

For financial goals that aren't at least five years away, it makes no sense to invest in the stock market, Jenkin said.

To test your own portfolio allocation based on your age, Jenkin suggested following the rule of 120 – subtract your age from that number to find out how you should be invested. So if you're 60 years old, for example, a 60% allocation to stocks may make sense.

When it comes to revisiting your portfolio allocations, it's wise to set your own schedule rather than react to market or other news events.

"Make a plan to do that once a year or so," Benz said.

Don’t miss these exclusives from CNBC PRO

  • Wednesday's analyst calls: Analysts discussed Alphabet and a Chinese electric vehicle maker.
  • CPI report: Inflation eased in April, with consumer prices still rising 3.4% from a year ago.
  • Trading CPI: How stocks could react to Wednesday's inflation report
  • Berkshire Hathaway reported Q1 2024 figures, revealing that most of the conglomerate's stock portfolio is focused on just five stocks.
  • CNBC Pro scoured Goldman Sach's May conviction lists for stocks with further upside of 50% or more, based on the bank's price targets.
As the Dow nears 40,000, here's what experts say you should do to prepare for a potential pullback (2024)

FAQs

Will the Dow hit $40,000 in 2024? ›

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 17, 2024 in New York City. Passing major milestones such as the 40,000 barrier the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed this week makes for a nice headline, but market experts do not take much else from the move.

Has the Dow ever reached $40,000? ›

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 40,000 mark Friday for the first time in its 139-year history. The blue-chip index initially crossed the key threshold early Thursday but ended that day lower.

What are experts saying about the stock market? ›

The index, which tracks the performance of about 500 of the largest U.S. company stocks, has jumped 53% since inflation peaked in 2022, experts noted during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit on Wednesday. While that may prompt fears that a pullback is on the horizon, stocks may have more room to run.

What is the best advice to give to a new investor in the stock market? ›

Commit to investment goals

It's also a good idea to carefully plot your short-, medium-, and long-term goals and time horizons; recognize the difference between "investing" and "trading"; define the type of investor or trader you are; and develop a profile that best suits your goals and comfort with risk.

How high will the Dow be in 2025? ›

Long Forecast
YearOpen, $Close, $
December 20244537046983
December 20255647259561
January 20265956156446
December 20265316451981
5 more rows

Will market bounce back in 2024? ›

Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.

What is the highest the Dow Jones average has ever closed at? ›

Key Takeaways. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit its record high on May 16, 2024, reaching 40,051.05 points during intraday trading. The Dow's all-time high at market close stands at 39,908.00, reached on May 15, 2024.

When did Dow reach $10,000? ›

The Dow first reached 10,000 in 1999—and it took about a decade for it to firmly break out of the 10,000 range. Between the dot-com bubble bursting and the 2008 financial crisis, gains were stunted.

What is the highest price for Dow Jones? ›

The highest closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) all-time was $40,003.59, last Friday. The latest price is $39,069.59.

What does Dave Ramsey say about the stock market? ›

Historically, the average annual rate of return for the stock market ranges from 10–12%. Remember that's an average—some years you'll see massive returns, and in other years you might see negative returns. But over time, you should see your money grow if you keep it invested for the long haul!

What does Warren Buffett say about investing in the stock market? ›

In Warren Buffet's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors, Buffett compared today's stock market to a casino, with investors buying and selling rapidly in the hopes of winning big. “For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” he wrote.

Should I be getting out of the stock market? ›

Instead of selling out, a better strategy would be to rebalance your portfolio to correspond with market conditions and outlook, making sure to maintain your overall desired mix of assets. Investing in equities should be a long-term endeavor, and the long-term favors those who stay invested.

Who is the number one investor in the world? ›

Warren Buffett is widely considered to be the most successful investor in history. Not only is he one of the richest men in the world, but he also has had the financial ear of numerous presidents and world leaders. When Buffett talks, world markets move based on his words.

What are the top 10 stocks to buy right now? ›

Sign up for Kiplinger's Free E-Newsletters
Company (ticker)Analysts' consensus recommendation scoreAnalysts' consensus recommendation
Amazon.com (AMZN)1.29Strong Buy
Nvidia (NVDA)1.33Strong Buy
Microsoft (MSFT)1.33Strong Buy
Bio-Techne (TECH)1.39Strong Buy
21 more rows

What is the best investment for 2024? ›

Overview: Best investments in 2024
  1. High-yield savings accounts. Overview: A high-yield online savings account pays you interest on your cash balance. ...
  2. Long-term certificates of deposit. ...
  3. Long-term corporate bond funds. ...
  4. Dividend stock funds. ...
  5. Value stock funds. ...
  6. Small-cap stock funds. ...
  7. REIT index funds.

Where will the Dow be in 2040? ›

If the Dow gains 7% on average annually moving forward, it reaches 116,200 early in 2040 - hitting Berger's mark exactly as he predicted. At that same 7% rate, it would take roughly 48 years to get to Dow 1 million.

What will the Dow be in 2035? ›

Based on compounding interest rates, he said if the Dow rises 7% a year going forward, it will hit 80,000 by 2035.

What is the long term Dow forecast? ›

Dow Jones index value stood at 40,004.35

According to the latest long-term forecast, Dow Jones value will hit 50000 by the end of 2026 and then 60000 by the middle of 2029. Dow Jones will rise to 70000 within the year of 2033 and 80000 in 2035.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Sen. Emmett Berge

Last Updated:

Views: 5996

Rating: 5 / 5 (80 voted)

Reviews: 87% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Sen. Emmett Berge

Birthday: 1993-06-17

Address: 787 Elvis Divide, Port Brice, OH 24507-6802

Phone: +9779049645255

Job: Senior Healthcare Specialist

Hobby: Cycling, Model building, Kitesurfing, Origami, Lapidary, Dance, Basketball

Introduction: My name is Sen. Emmett Berge, I am a funny, vast, charming, courageous, enthusiastic, jolly, famous person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.