30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

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30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity

Survey: Fed will keep interest rates historically high until end of 2026.

One reason being that as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Importantly, the SEP projects that the Federal Funds rate will fall to 4.6% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026.

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

The general consensus among industry professionals is that mortgage rates will slowly decline in the last quarter of 2024. The projected declines have shrunk, though, in recent months. At the start of the year, for instance, Fannie Mae predicted rates would drop to 5.8%.

30 Year Mortgage Rate in the United States averaged 7.73 percent from 1971 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 18.63 percent in October of 1981 and a record low of 2.65 percent in January of 2021. This page includes a chart with historical data for the United States 30 Year Mortgage Rate.

Are 30 year mortgage rates dropping? ›

“We revised our mortgage rate forecast downward slightly month over month. We now forecast the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate to average 6.6% in 2024, and to average 6.1% in 2025.” National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun.

In the fall of 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate reached an all-time high of 18.63%. We'll examine mortgage trends for the past five decades and look ahead to see what borrowers can expect in 2024.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

But until the Fed sees evidence of slowing economic growth, interest rates will stay higher for longer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the mid-6% range through the end of 2024, potentially dipping into high-5% territory by the end of 2025.

Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to between 6.4% and 6.5% in 2024. Homebuyers might consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition when rates drop.

In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future.